Autumn’s First Frost: Forecast Week 40
After a long run of warm above average temperatures, this week could finally signal a return to something a bit more seasonal.
As we enter week forty of the year, there will seem little difference in the weather conditions. High pressure remains mostly in control meaning that the weather will remain rather mundane with a majority of clouds with intermittent periods of sun. Throughout Monday, temperatures will be mild, a high of sixteen degrees, a low of ten, and rain will never be too far away, perhaps showing its hands later in the evening. However Tuesday marks a change. As the high pressure starts to move, the winds will start to pivot from southwesterly to more western, which will in turn lower the temperature, leaving a high of an autumnal thirteen degrees and a low of nine degrees. The day on a whole should be pleasant with clouds giving way to occasional periods of sun, however a rogue shower can’t be ruled out.
Moving into hump-day and it will certainly feel seasonal. The winds continue to pivot northwards and the temperature high tumbles three more degrees to around ten degrees, maybe even into single figures around Leadburn and the higher regions of Penicuik. Continuing through the day and the temperature will try little to improve; eventually giving up and starting its descent towards the night-time temperature of a mere four degrees, lower in rural regions. Wednesday – in summary – will be a cool day with intermittent sun and showers but for many these conditions will be welcomed.
If it is cold and crispy you like, Thursday is for you. We anticipate this to the first day of Autumn to bring a ground frost. The first signal of the onslaught of Winter will likely be apparent as you draw back your curtains on the penultimate day of the working week. A clear night and low temperatures, feeling below freezing, will mean that a ground frost should form across the region, however the higher you are and the further into the countryside you are, the more likely it is you’ll get to see the crystalline water structure. Thursday, on a whole, should be a day of beautiful autumnal sunshine but wrap up because the winds will have now reached their northerly position, making it scarf and gloves cool.
Week forty is now rounding up and the weather will have certainly changed. No longer will it be monotonously cloudy and mild but instead it should be sunny and cool, and generally just far more seasonal. Friday will wrap up our forecast as being a day of broken sunshine, feeling cool again with a high of eleven degrees or so.
Send us your autumnal pictures of the beautiful local scenery to email@example.com or post them on our timeline. Let’s Keep Penicuik moving This Winter by The Penicuckoo will return in the coming weeks. A full seven day forecast is available at the bottom of our homepage.
White Christmas Forecast (Provided by The Weather Outlook)
A new month and time for the for the sixth update, so how are things panning out? High pressure has been persistent and stubborn during recent times with only short unsettled interludes. However, there are now signs of a change towards the middle of October with a good chance of a more zonal pattern becoming established close to the UK and possibly east across much of Europe. If this becomes established it could reduce the chances of early cold becoming established in eastern Europe. Partly due to this the sixth update reduces the chance of a White Christmas. However, they remain above the long term average, especially in the south because background signals still seem to favour high pressure blocking to the north of Britain and this usually means cold weather during the winter months.
In summary the chances of snow this Christmas are thought to be above the long term average.
Do remember that it’s way too early to have any confidence in this. The forecast is for fun only so enjoy counting down the days and check regularly for updates through the coming weeks to see how things are panning out through the autumn.
Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day
North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 23%
South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 21%
[Image © Flickr]